I had this published in the London Evening Standard on Tuesday 9th December 2008, commenting about how restaurants might survive in the current credit crunch:
The dire economic situation will definitely affect London's restaurants, but in different ways:
Established local restaurants that have a proven formula and a regular clientele will not be significantly affected. They will tweak their offering, reducing dish prices and offering more set menus, but they will survive.
Established 'famous' restaurants, such as The Ivy, Le Gavroche etc, will also be fine. They will relax booking policies, making it easier for diners to book and increase their booking channels by making use of online booking platforms like LiveBookings. Whilst they might see a drop in business from locals, I expect this to be more than made up for by an increase in bookings from overseas customers. With near pound to euro parity and a dollar fifty buying a pound, London is getting cheaper and cheaper for tourists. Ten years ago, 70% of visitors to The London Restaurant Review website were from outside the UK. Nowadays it is more like 10-15% but we expect this to switch to 50/50 over the next 12 to 18 months.
Finally, the newly opened restaurants will struggle. They will have built business plans on trade estimates that are now out of date and will therefore take longer to recoup initial outlays. With no loyal customer base, they will have to rely on PR and advertising to get the word out and ensure that the first impression is a great one. If it is mediocre then customers will not be prepared to give them a second chance in these tough times.
